Look into the future and open your mind: “Foresight Ukraine” offers for scenarios regarding Ukraine’s development up to 2027. The development in and around Ukraine since 2013 with Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the ongoing fighting in the Donbas region has sparked a major crisis in the European security order. Given the wide gap between the various elite views on the origins of the crisis and the difficulty in influencing the Minsk settlement process, a very much needed dialogue should focus on a topic that allows the sides to rise above present disputes and focus on shared interests, while offering the prospect of common understandings on the current conflict.
“Foresight Ukraine” with its four scenarios on the future of Ukraine until 2027, has been developed by a select, high-level group of Russians, Europeans, Americans, and Ukrainians. Scenarios are one approach for dealing with an uncertain future, especially if one lives in very turbulent times. The advantage of drafting multiple scenarios rather than crafting a grand strategy is that scenarios provide more clarity to decision-makers and the expert community about Ukraine’s choices and the impact of those choices for its future and that of all interested states. This approach could provide the impetus to begin a reevaluation of both the country’s current course and its policies.